Yesterday, we witnessed yet another eighth inning meltdown by our bullpen. Dan Haren pitched another solid game for the Angels and still came up short. Howie Kendrick and Alberto Callaspo gave him some run support in the top of the inning, but reliever Kevin Jepsen let one slip through by allowing three runs. On top of that, we had a chance to go up a game against the Texas Rangers after a 10-9 loss the the Kansas City Royals. Now, the Angels must win against lefty Jason Vargas, who has a 1.71 ERA against the Angels in 21 innings this year. We’ll throw out Trevor Bell, who had his first solid outing of the year against the Baltimore Orioles. Kansas City is doing their job against the Rangers, we need to do our job to win this series against the Mariners.
Accuscore.com Forecast:
The Seattle Mariners are 31-35 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Los Angeles Angels who are 30-37 on the road this season. The Mariners have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Mariners’ starter Jason Vargas is forecasted to have a better game than Angels’ starter Trevor Bell. Jason Vargas has a 66% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Trevor Bell has a 44% chance of a QS. If Jason Vargas has a quality start the Mariners has a 75% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.3 and he has a 36% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Mariners win 69%. In Trevor Bell quality starts the Angels win 59%. He has a 19% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 59% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Seattle Mariners is Ichiro Suzuki who averaged 2.33 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 40% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Mariners have a 75% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Los Angeles Angels is Torii Hunter who averaged 1.81 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 28% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Angels have a 59% chance of winning.
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ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore’s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore’s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.
SIDE VALUE (2010 SEASON) – Los Angeles Angels Road Games: 33-34, 49% -380 Seattle Mariners Home Games: 35-31, 53% +144 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) – Los Angeles Angels Road Games: 9-5, 64% +357 Seattle Mariners Home Games: 5-9, 36% -471
MONEY LINE (2010 SEASON) – Los Angeles Angels Road Games: 34-33, 51% -719 Seattle Mariners Home Games: 40-26, 61% +645 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) – Los Angeles Angels Road Games: 8-6, 57% +18 Seattle Mariners Home Games: 7-7, 50% -119
OVER-UNDER RECORD (2010 SEASON) – Los Angeles Angels Road Games: 22-26, 46% -660 Seattle Mariners Home Games: 18-29, 38% -1390 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) – Los Angeles Angels Road Games: 7-3, 70% + 370 Seattle Mariners Home Games: 7-4, 64% + 260
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