The book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, by Michael Lewis came out in 2003 about the Oakland Athletics and GM Billy Bean trying to win with a smaller budget. The primary focus at the time was pitching and on-base-percentage. And we saw this on the field with pitchers such as Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, and Tim Hudson. And currently with hitters like Jack Cust. However, it now seems as though the price of pitching has shot up with pitchers like John Lackey, and A.J. Burnett (Maybe #2 pitchers at best) getting $85 million. Also, the medium average, big power, poor defensive players like Adam Dunn, and Jason Bay seem to still be taking advantage of a down economy. Even though they didn’t get at much as they would they are still making more than there colleagues. Some would blame this on a small free agent class, I would argue that the price of BB’s is extremely high. The Angels paid $6.5 million for a guy that can’t stay healthy and can’t play in the field in Hideki Matsui.

It seems as though a new “Moneyball” is here and you can bet that the Oakland A’s are very aware. Many commentators have already crowned the Seattle Mariners as the champion of the West due to their off-season moves, but they are paying a large sum for just a few players. Most of their payroll goes toward King Felix, Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, and Ken Griffey Jr. I bet you can’t you name the rest of their lineup and pitching staff. Meanwhile the Oakland A’s have paid very little for a great defensive outfielder and lead-off man in Coco Crisp (1 year $5.25 mil), and a potential Ace in Justin Duchscherer (1 year $2 mill with incentives). (Both are injury prone) Why do you think the A’s are so interested in Adrian Beltre?

If I had to sum it up I would say the new “Moneyball” would include high upside injury prone veterans, but mostly consist of defensive players with a little speed and pop. The Red Sox and Yankees typically use these value players to fill out their roster. (i.e. Mike Cameron - Boston Red Sox - 2 years $15.5 million) Both organizations have been known to take advantage of the high OPS, previous “Moneyball” players in the past. (i.e. Nick Swisher)

Now it seems as though everyone is getting less money days if they even have a job. These value players I am referring to are inexpensive as compared to the current market. Look for the Oakland A’s to surprise doubters once again. The Angels will have a tough road ahead of them in 2010.

Here are some “New Moneyball” value players that are still out there:

Ben Sheets
John Smoltz
Jose Contreras
Erik Bedard
Pedro Martinez
Chien-Ming Wang

Orlando Cabrera
Adrian Beltre
Rick Ankiel
Scott Podsednik

The Angels have capitalized on playing in a division with teams in transition in recent years. They’ve won four of the last five A.L. West division titles as the Rangers, Mariners, and Athletics have been reshaping and retooling their respective organizations. With a strong farm system and a willing owner in Arte Moreno, the Halos have clearly been the class of the west for the last half decade. But it is clear that the gap between the Have’s and Have Not’s in the division is narrowing.

We are through the first stage of the off-season, and thus far, the Angels have taken some serious blows, and they are painful ones. They have seen their ace, John Lackey, defect to the playoff nemesis Red Sox. They’ve watched their spark plug, Chone Figgins, head to their rivals from the Pacific Northwest and seem to have watched Jason Bay drift out of their free agent price range. Perhaps due to a pitcher’s personal preference, the Angels lost out on the dominant Roy Halladay to the Phillies. The Halos watched this grizzly scene unfold in just a week’s time, and their lone response thus far is the signing of Hideki Matsui to a one-year deal – effectively replacing one aging right handed DH with bad knees, with an aging, left handed DH with bad knees.

The Mariners, who surprised the baseball world by contending into September in 2009, have shown that they are serious about contending in 2010. They not only landed Figgins to pair with Ichiro atop their order, but appear to have also snagged a former Cy Young Award winner in Cliff Lee. This gives Seattle an elite top of the order and an elite top of the rotation, pairing Lee with young stud Felix Hernandez. And Seattle may not be done dealing. The M’s won 85 games last year, and look well-poised to improve on that number.

Meanwhile, the new-look Rangers have been active as well, dealing the oft-injured Kevin Millwood to Baltimore for a solid, young reliever, and adding ace-when-healthy right-hander Rich Harden. They are also in the works of acquiring veteran slugger Mike Lowell to add to an already potent offense. If Nolan Ryan’s young pitching staff continues to improve on schedule, Texas could be a handful in 2010.

Oakland is the wild card in the division. They finished last season strong and with flashes of a budding young pitching stable. While quiet in the off season thus far, you can never predict the working of A’s GM Billy Beane. If Oakland can find some offense and their young pitching progresses, the AL West could very well take over the moniker of “best division in the AL.”

But it is not all doom and gloom for the Angels, who still have a lot of time to retool for 2010. Despite losing key contributors from their 2009 team, they bring back the majority of their roster from a team that won 97 games. They’ve added Matsui to give them what they hope will be a power bat from the left side. And there is plenty of time until Christmas and beyond for GM Tony Reagins to keep shopping.

Despite losing Lackey, the Angels still have a rotation many teams would be envious of. They bring back a young but experienced group including Weaver, Saunders, Kazmir, and Santana. And it has been rumored that the Halos are seriously considering dealing for Atlanta’s Derek Lowe. Lowe, while not an ace at this stage of his career, would provide a stabilizing and durable presence in the rotation, as he has thrown at least 180 innings for seven consecutive seasons. It would also give the Angels a surplus of quality starters, giving them the ability to make a possible trade for an ace, should one present itself mid-season.

Offensively, the Halos have plenty of bright spots. Erick Aybar has improved considerably over the past two seasons, and at 25, could be a fixture at short stop for years to come. Kendry Morales put up a monster season, validated by his 5th place finish in the A.L. MVP voting. He looks to be a cornerstone player with enormous upside and potential. Adding Matsui’s bat to a veteran outfield of Rivera, Hunter, and Abreu should provide sufficient pop in the middle of the order to score runs, but it would be safe to assume that Reagins would prefer to add another bat. Brandon Wood may be the X factor offensively. If Wood can fill in adequately for Figgins at third base and provide some extra power at the bottom of the order, it would ease the sting of losing Chone to free agency.

So let’s hope that Moreno and Reagins can pull a couple of rabbits out of their hats and improve the ballclub. There is still a lot of off-season wheeling and dealing to go down in the coming months and the Angels have done well improving the team in recent winters. But the Halos surely have their work cut out for them. After one really bad Monday in December, maintaining their grasp on A.L. West dominance seemingly just became a lot tougher.

By Blake Warren

Buster Olney arrived at ESPN after six years at the New York Times covering the Mets and Yankees

Not with ESPN anymore but Peter Gammons grew up in Groton, Massachusetts, and lives in Boston. Gammons covered the Red Sox at the Boston Globe for many years.

Keith Law grew up in Smithtown, New York and graduated from Harvard University

Karl Ravech grew up in Needham, Massachusetts and was previously affiliated with local radio stations in Pennsylvania and New York.

Bill Simmons grew up in Massachusetts and studied print journalism at Boston University. Before ESPN he worked on the website Digital City Boston, worked for the Boston Herald and was known as the “Boston Sports Guy”

Other Notables

Tim Kurkjian grew up in Maryland and covered the Baltimore Orioles for the Baltimore Sun

Jayson Stark was born in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and prior to joining ESPN he covered the Philadelphia Phillies for The Philadelphia Inquirer.
He not there anymore but Steve Phillips was the General Manager for the New York Mets.

Most of the rest of the ESPN’s baseball contributors are ex-players.

As most of you know Rex Hudler and Steve Physioc have been let go by the Angels. Now as we know more we will let you know, but the campaign to bring Rex back starts now. Please join our facebook group by clicking the link below, and let’s let the Angels know how we feel.

GoHalos.com is now officially dedicated to Rex Hudler. To us no free agent is as important to the identity of the Angels and Rex. Not only did he get us pumped up for every game (Including the Royals), he rivals Torii Hunter’s work in the community.

We are not going to get into why the Angels did this, because I think we all know why, and frankly it’s despicable. The Angels are a classy organization, which is why this is so upsetting.

Please help us bring back Mr. Angel.

Bring Back Rex Hudler

Now that Bobby Abreu is signed there are three other ex-Angel free-agents who’s futures are uncertain. So how should the Angels approach this offseason?

Priority #1- John Lackey and/or another solid starting pitcher. If the Angels were to lose Big John we would be left with four solid starting pitchers, but that’s a downgrade from what we had last season. With all due respect for O’Sullivan, Palmer, and Bell, none of them will be number one or each number two starters any time soon. You just can’t win without pitching which is why this is priority.

#2 - Bullpen. Along with mental mistakes our bullpen probably lost us a World Series this year. Luckily, unlike other positions, the options for solid bullpen pitchers is plentiful. I would like to see the Angels bring in someone like Putz, Soriano, or Gonzalez.

#3 - Third Base. This is something that can be filled in house if they finally give Brandon Wood a shot. But as we learned from Dallas McPherson that is not always a good idea. Look for the Angels to heavily pursue Chone Figgins, and possibly leave the DH slot open for a rotation that may include Brandon Wood.

#4 - Vlad. Because we hate to see him go, but will only pay so much.

-Tony C

1. Matt Holliday - Sure he was great in Colorado and St. Louis, but there is just too much down side for the price he will be asking. The Cardinals should have beat the Dodgers, and he is a big reason why they didn’t. The last thing we need is a playoff mental case.

2. R. Wolf - Outside of Dodger stadium Wolf is a mediocre pitcher at best. And that is in the national league. I don’t want another Jeff Weaver.

3. Johnny Damon - Damon really only hit well in games that weren’t really close in this years playoffs. He’s also tough to put in the outfield because of his poor arm. I’m definitely not as opposed to him as I am the others on this list, but with Bobby Abreu now signed I don’t think it’s a good idea.

4. Rich Harden - Sure he’s great when he’s healthy during the regular season, but again he’s hasn’t yet proven himself in the playoffs and thats what we need.

5. M. Cameron - The last thing we need is another Gary Matthews Jr.

6. Troy Glaus - He not a World Series MVP anymore. Remember he was on steriods then. Brandon Wood is a better option at third.

7. Marlon Byrd - He just a jerk, and has only really performed well in Texas.

Coming soon…The Angels Best Free Agent Options

- Tony C

Major Expiring Contacts:

Vladimir Guerrero
5 years/$70M (2004-08), plus 2009 club option
2009 Salary - $15 million

Kelvim Escobar
3 years/$28.5M (2007-09)
2009 Salary - $9.5 million

John Lackey
3 years/$17.01M (2006-08), plus 2009 club option
2009 Salary - $9 million

Chone Figgins
1 year/$5.775M (2009)

Bobby Abreu
1 year/$5M (2009)

In my view the Angels have a legitimate shot of keeping all of these guys with the exception of Escobar. Escobar’s 9.5 million will be gone and Vlad won’t make near as much as he is now. This will free up money for primarily John Lackey, who I think will be the Angels #1 target. Pitching is just too valuable, and Lackey is clutch.

Primary teams we’ll be competing with:

John Lackey - Rangers, Dodgers, Cubs, Astros, Mets, Cardinals (Yankees and Red Sox already an ace and have other holes to fill, but you never know)

Vladimir Guerrero - Mariners, White Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles (I know these teams look random, but he can’t go to the National League, and I really don’t think the big market teams want him)

Chone Figgins - Everyone (Figgins is so valuable due to his position eligibility and speed, I think he will be the hardest to keep)

Bobby Abreu - Same (Again, five tool player. His age and defensive abilities will bring the price down)

Other Nice Options:

Jason Bay, Matt Holliday

-Tony C

Thank you for never giving up, for remembering what’s important in life, and for remembering the fans. I know some of you may not be back, but thank you for distracting us from our lives for three hours a night, and giving us something to cheer for.

…Fans

Thank you for your endless support for the greatest team in sports. Thank you for being there for this team through thick and thin, and being apart of this wonderful Angels family.

Although this may hurt, this is a time to celebrate an epic season. We may not have made it to the World Series, but in my view this was the greatest season in Angel history. I really could care less what happens in the World Series, I may not even watch it. I think we have already won.

On behalf of the GoHalos.com team, thank you and God Bless.

- Tony C

A great series has a chance to be epic. Joe Saunders, who pitched well in game 2, takes the mound against Andy Pettitte, who the Angels have had a lot of success against. The Angels will face a hostile crowd in New York, but the weather will be much better. I’d like to see the Angels get off to an early start, but it doesn’t seem proper unless they come back from behind. So we’ll see. Good luck out there Halo fans. Hopefully this game will be less stressful and we can take it to game 7.

Yankees

Pitching - Andy Pettitte
2009 Postseason - 12.2 in, 10H 4ER 9K, 2.84 ERA
Last Start Against Angels - 6.1 in, 7H 3ER, 2.84 ERA

Angels

Pitching - Joe Saunders
Last Start Against Yankees - 7 in, 6H 2ER 5K, 2.57 ERA

We’ve found ourselves in a 3-1 hole, but if anyone can pull us out of it, it’ll be our ace John Lackey, who has posted a 1.38 ERA in 13 postseason innings of work. Lackey has already thrown against the Yankees in this series, and while he gave up 9 hits in 5.2 innings and gave up 4 runs, only two of those were earned. He didn’t get a lot of run support, mainly because he was paired against C.C. Sabathia, who quite frankly, embarrassed us last game. But this time, he’ll be pitching against A.J. Burnett, who gave up two earned runs in six innings. One of the reasons we are struggling offensively is because we are swinging too early in the count. We’re giving pitchers innings where they throw less than 10 pitches, and the longer they stay in the game, the less we’ll see of the bullpen, and we have shown we can hit the bullpen (Mariano Rivera may be the exception). Sabathia lasted 8 innings in both outings, and the Yankees won those games easily. But the Yankees bullpen has struggled to control the Angels in late innings, and manager Joe Girardi has had to basically use his entire relief staff to finish the game. Aside from last game, the Yankees were averaging 4 runs a game. If we can keep them under five runs, get Burnett out of the game early and play with confidence, we can take this game and keep the series alive. Go Halos!

Yankees

Pitching - A.J. Burnett
Postseason - 12.1 in, 6H 3ER 10K, 2.19 ERA
Last Start Against Angels - 6.1 in, 3H 2ER, 2.84 ERA

Angels

Pitching - John Lackey
Postseason - 13 in, 13H 2ER 7K, 1.38 ERA
Last STart Against Yankees - 5.2 in, 9H 2ER 3K, 3.18 ERA

…Players

Errors happen when your nervous or mentally somewhere else, and high scoring innings happen when pitchers aren’t aggressive. It feels like our Red Sox series of the past. Mental error after mental error. This is not the Angel team we have seen all year. Why is it so hard to step and throw a baseball accurately? You are major league players.

Also, in two playoff starts now Scott Kazmir is dancing around the strike zone like he’s Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Yankees will get their home runs, but if you limit them to solo shots you can put yourself in a position to win. We saw this in game 3. Scott Kazmir should have been pulled for Santana in the third inning. He maneuvered himself out of two situations early, but the Yankee lineup will get to you eventually if you give them the chance.

Yes this umpiring crew should be fired. The calls they made in this game were sickening, but they really had no effect on the outcome. Excuse my frustration, but it’s time for this team to grow a pair, and be aggressive like they were in game 3 and against the Red Sox.

…Fans

I was at last nights game, and there were a good amount of Yankee fans there. But even when the game started to turn for the worst there were a handful of Angel fans trying to quiet the Yankee cheers, and do their part. They got no support. Maybe it’s just because I was in the 100 hundred section where the Orange County rich sit, who could care less about this team, but what I saw was pathetic. I myself was told by a Yankee fan to sit down because he couldn’t see. I was told this for cheering my team in our stadium, and I wasn’t the only one. When this happened the Angel fans around me did nothing. Also, after the 7th inning half of the stadium left the game. I know we were down, but it’s a playoff game. Let me say it again, IT’S A FREAKING PLAYOFF GAME! Only 8 team in baseball make the playoffs, let alone the ALCS.

Maybe I’m wrong, but I thought we were supposed to support each other. And let me also be clear, there were a lot of great fans there last night. There are a lot of great Angel fans in general, but last night we were out numbered. So I ask again, what are you afraid of? That a Yankee fan will call you a name, or that you’ll get stuck in the parking lot for an extra ten minutes. Give me a break!

I still have hope. This series is not over yet. We won’t see Sabathia until game 7, and we have Lackey on the mound tomorrow. So if you are going to the game on Thursday make yourself heard, stay standing, and stay for the whole game because again, this is the playoffs and a lot of people would love to be where you are. If you aren’t that into it, don’t come. Seriously. We don’t want you there. We have such a great core of fans, so let’s make that known.

- Tony C