It’s a rare occasion in baseball where a two-week stretch can ultimately make or break a team’s season. But that certainly seems to be the case with the 2010 Angels here in late July. Starting with Tuesday night’s rout of the Yankees, the Angels embarked on the most pivotal 12-game run of the year with the remaining 11 games against the American League’s toughest competition. After taking on the AL’s best team in New York Wednesday, the Halos will travel to Arlington for a four-game series against the team they’re trying to chase down in the AL West. Then they will make their way back to Anaheim for three against Boston and another three against the Rangers. Oh yeah, and all of this will take place during the countdown to the July 31 trade deadline.

Entering Wednesday’s contest in the Bronx, the Angels find themselves five games back of Texas, who has shown few signs of letting down so far in this second half. With the Rangers acquisition of stud lefty Cliff Lee and the uncertainty of who the Halos may be able to acquire during this year’s trade season, these next seven games against Texas become highly critical. It would be safe to say that the Angels need to take at least four of the seven to keep the heat on the Rangers in the division race. If the Halos can do that, and manage to hold their own against the Red Sox, they could find a new-found confidence that could carry them down the stretch and force Texas to feel the pressure the whole way – something the team from Arlington has rarely had to deal with.

Tuesday’s romp of New York revealed some positive signs. Maicer Izturis returned from the DL to drive in three, including a 2-run bomb. Mike Napoli continued to stay hot in the second half with a homer and four RBIs. And Mike Scioscia is hoping Matsui’s late homer will spark a turn-around for the DH in the weeks to come.

Angel pitching has been solid in recent weeks, but has often been done in by a lack of run support. If the Angels can stay healthy and find some consistency on offense, they will win their share of games. Maybe GM Tony Reagins can find them some help in the coming days to bolster their lineup or perhaps add an arm to the bullpen. A little help would likely be welcome. With the Rangers continuing to surge, it might even be necessary.

One thing is certain. The time is now for the Angels to take charge of their season and keep their post-season hopes in their own hands. It will be a tall task with a brutal schedule ahead and facing a fluctuating trade market, but it is still the Angels for the taking if they can find their mojo.

By Blake Warren

AMERICAN LEAGUE

The Tampa Bay Rays may have been fighting in the dugout a week ago, but Week 13 saw them go 4-2 against key playoff competitors in Boston and Minnesota. By beating playoff competition on the road the Rays improved their playoff chances by over 13 percentage points. They are the only American League team to see a significant improvement in their playoff chances this week. The Rays are only 2 games behind the Yankees but AccuScore simulations still strongly favor the Yankees to win the AL East at 65 percent to Tampa Bay’s 19 percent and Boston’s 16 percent. Interestingly, the Rays’ poor home record is the cause for concern.

The Rangers were just 2-4 this week and their playoff chances did dip more than 5 percentage points but by splitting a pair of games vs the Angels on the road, they were able to minimize the damage that a 2-4 week can have. In simulations the Rangers are finishing with slightly fewer wins than both Tampa Bay and Boston, but their chances of making the playoffs are much higher. The Angels are just 3.5 games back of Texas, but the Rangers are expected to increase this gap to 7+ games by the end of the season. The reason why the Angels are only making the playoffs in 8.5% of simulations is their remaining home schedule includes Tampa Bay, Boston and 2 series with the Rangers. Of course if LA can take 5 of 7 from Texas in their games after the All-Star break (last two weekends in July) they can quickly close the gap. Anything worse than going 4-3 could give Texas a very comfortable cushion down the stretch.

The Twins, Tigers and White Sox all had mediocre weeks at 3-4, 3-3, and 3-3 respectively. The Twins dropped over 3 percentage points, but despite their poor play recently, AccuScore still favors the Twins to take the division at 48.6 percent. The Tigers have only played 7 games vs the AL East while Minnesota has played 21. When the Tigers start playing the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox, AccuScore expects them to start falling behind Minnesota. Minnesota is also doing well in the Central with a 19-10 record and there is a good chance that by the end of the season the Twins will beat the White Sox and Tigers at a +.500 rate in head-to-head match-ups which will also help Minnesota separate.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

The Reds went 5-2 this week and managed to win 3 of 4 on the road vs the Cubs. Up to this point in the season the Reds have rode an imbalanced schedule with 11 more home games than road games to take the division lead. While taking 3 of 4 on the road is good regardless of the opponent, the Reds will have to show they can play .500 baseball vs good teams on the road if they expect to win the NL Central. Despite being 1.5 games back the Cardinals are still the favorite to win the Central at 60 percent to just under 40 for the Reds.

The Dodgers were 5-1 this past week and because it included a road sweep of rival San Francisco they saw their playoff chances jump over 20 percentage points. San Diego continues to have the best record in the NL after another solid 4-3 week, although three of the four wins were against lowly Houston, and they did drop two of three at home to Colorado. Despite their having the best record in the NL AccuScore continues to demonstrate a lack of faith in their ability to sustain this great performance during the second half of the season giving the Padres just a 48 percent chance of making the playoffs despite their great success to date.

The Phillies had a bad 2-5 week and saw their playoff chances get by more than half. They dropped 2 of 3 to the Reds, one of their main potential Wild Card competitors and dropped 2 of 3 to lowly Pittsburgh. Of course ordinarily a 2-5 week would not result in a -35 percentage point drop, but when you combine it with the negative impact from the injuries to Chase Utley and Placido Polanco you see why Philadelphia is in serious trouble. Right now the Braves and Mets are neck and neck for the projected division lead with the Braves finishing 1 game up on the Mets by year end on average.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

The Tigers led the AL in playoff probability improvement with a +18 percentage point week. They were 5-2 with quality wins over the Yankees and potential Wild Card competitor Boston. The Tigers rise also took a -10.8 percentage point chunk out of the Twins’ chances who despite their grand-slam off of Mariano Rivera still finished just 2-3 this week. Despite the down week the Twins are still heavy 73 percent favorites to win the AL Central. Both teams benefit from lackluster efforts so far from the White Sox, Royals and Indians.

The Angels had a good 4-2 week and more than doubled their playoff chances, but considering they are still 3 games under .500 they still have under a 15 percent chance. The rest of the AL West was amazingly stable this week with no team rising or falling more than a couple of percentage points.

The NY Yankees were just 3-4 with losses in Detroit and the shocking loss to the Twins. While their playoff chances took a -8.6 percentage point hit they are still clearly in control of their playoff destiny with a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 53 percent chance of catching the Rays despite being 2 games back currently. The Rays parlayed a 4-2 week into a solid +5 percentage point increase and they have the 2nd highest playoff percentage despite being in the same division as the Yankees, the #1 in playoff percentage.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

While the AL was marked by its lack of playoff shifts, the NL is marked by a major shift of 10+ percentage points (positively and negatively) for 8 teams and only two teams shifted by less than 2 percentage points. The Dodgers continue stay hot and after an undefeated week their playoff chances have skyrocketed by +32 points. While the Giants were a decent 3-3 they still lose over 25 points because they were swept by division leader San Diego at home, instead of taking 2 of 3 as the odds would expect. The Padres were not able to capitalize on this sweep because they were in turn swept by the Dodgers. The Rockies also had a big 4-2 week and wins over Washington are no longer considered easy wins but rather quality wins.

The Reds also had a great 5-1 week with an impressive series vs the Cardinals. The Reds may have been home underdogs in these games but they won 2 of 3 and saw their playoff chances jump 25 points, primarily at the expense of the Cardinals who plummeted over 25 percentage points.

The Atlanta Braves were 5-1 but only saw a minor +2.4 percentage point improvement. They were expected to go 4-2 this week so a 5-1 week is only +1 better than expected. They are still 5.5 games back. The Phillies and Marlins were our pre-season picks to lead the NL East and the Mets 1-6 week have brought them back down to earth with a -6 point drop.

By Stephen Oh

AccuScore.com

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AccuScore was optimistic that Oakland could improve on last year’s poor 75 win season giving them a nearly 18 percent chance of making the playoffs. After a 9-5 start the A’s playoff chances jumped nearly 25 percentage points and they are actually the favorite in the AL West in a virtual tie with pre-season pick, Los Angeles. The Angels are just 6-7, but they only dropped -4.8 points because they have had a tough early schedule with series vs the Twins and Yankees. Seattle is also just 6-7, but they only dropped -3.2 percent. The big loser in the division is Texas who is just 5-7.

When Joe Nathan got injured many predicted the Twins would struggle, but AccuScore only had the Twins winning 1.5 fewer games without Nathan and they were our pick to win the Division. After a 9-4 start the Twins have improved their projected win total from 88 to 93 wins. Jon Rauch is 6-0 in save opportunities and more importantly, Francisco Liriano has looked great. The Royals and Indians are 5-7, and 6-6 respectively, but given they were both projected for 74 wins or less, these records are enough to see their playoff chances jump +10.8 points for KC and +5.0 points for Cleveland. The Royals jumped more because of quality road wins @Detroit and @ Minnesota. Of course the biggest reason for their increase is the fact that the White Sox are just 4-9 and have seen their playoff chances already drop from 25.8 to just 9.6 percent. The -16.2 points matches up nearly exactly with the +15.8 points for KC and CLE. Detroit is 7-5 and on the exact pace AccuScore predicted. Its playoff chances are basically unchanged after 2 weeks.

The Blue Jays are surprisingly over .500 and they did lead the AL East in increased playoff chances (+8.8 percent), but they still have just a 9.0 percent chance of making the playoffs. The story in the AL East is Boston and their awful 4-8 start which includes bad home losses to the Yankees and Rays. In a division where the Top 3 Teams were separated by 8 to 10 wins, starting 1-5 against your primary competition is taking a severe -37 percent toll. While there are still 23 more weeks to go, do not be surprised if Boston fans are bemoaning their horrible start when they are 3rd in the AL East at the end of the season. The Rays are the main beneficiary of Boston’s bad start with a +15.7 percentage point improvement.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

The NL West was forecasted to be the most competitive division with the Top 4 teams all projected for 81 to 85 wins. The Giants are the big winners after the first two weeks with a +15 point increase in playoff percentage. While the Giants helped themselves with a solid 8-4 start, their +15 point increase has more to do with both the Rockies and Dodgers going just .500. While the Giants have a 2 game lead at the moment they are predicted to play better than expected in the pre-season because their #3 and #4 starters, Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito, have looked good and Tim Lincecum is dominating. The Giants have superior pitching. The Padres are actually the biggest gainers in the division at +17.5 points after a surprising 6-6 start. Expect SD to slip in the coming weeks after they start facing LA, Colorado and San Francisco.

The Cubs and Brewers are just 5-7 but somehow they saw their playoff chances increase slightly after 2 weeks. In pre-season simulations their playoff chances were tied to being the NL Wild Card. While a 5-7 record does not help the cause, the early struggles of the Dodgers, Rockies and NL Central rival, Cincinnati, have helped improve the playoff chances of other Wild Card contenders. The Reds, Dodgers and Rockies dropped a combined -32 points and some of this drop-off went to these two NL Central teams. The Cardinals are playing well, as expected and maintained their over 80% chance they had in the pre-season.

The Phillies are a solid 8-4 and are ahead of the pace to win their projected 94 games. However, their playoff chances actually have dropped -14 points to a still solid 72.5 percent. We are not saying the Phillies are not as good a team as expected, we are saying the Marlins could pose more serious threats in the division than expected. Florida took two of three from Philadelphia in Philadelphia and head-to-head wins make a significant impact on playoff odds because they often dictate who wins a division. The Braves also have played up to high expectations with a solid 7-5 record, but like Philly, they saw their playoff odds drop after two weeks. Again, the solid 8-5 from Florida, and the surprising 6-6 from the Washington Nationals (+4.7 points) have made the already competitive NL East, even more competitive than expected. The Mets are the only team that is performing to AccuScore’s low expectations.

A great series has a chance to be epic. Joe Saunders, who pitched well in game 2, takes the mound against Andy Pettitte, who the Angels have had a lot of success against. The Angels will face a hostile crowd in New York, but the weather will be much better. I’d like to see the Angels get off to an early start, but it doesn’t seem proper unless they come back from behind. So we’ll see. Good luck out there Halo fans. Hopefully this game will be less stressful and we can take it to game 7.

Yankees

Pitching – Andy Pettitte
2009 Postseason – 12.2 in, 10H 4ER 9K, 2.84 ERA
Last Start Against Angels – 6.1 in, 7H 3ER, 2.84 ERA

Angels

Pitching – Joe Saunders
Last Start Against Yankees – 7 in, 6H 2ER 5K, 2.57 ERA

We’ve found ourselves in a 3-1 hole, but if anyone can pull us out of it, it’ll be our ace John Lackey, who has posted a 1.38 ERA in 13 postseason innings of work. Lackey has already thrown against the Yankees in this series, and while he gave up 9 hits in 5.2 innings and gave up 4 runs, only two of those were earned. He didn’t get a lot of run support, mainly because he was paired against C.C. Sabathia, who quite frankly, embarrassed us last game. But this time, he’ll be pitching against A.J. Burnett, who gave up two earned runs in six innings. One of the reasons we are struggling offensively is because we are swinging too early in the count. We’re giving pitchers innings where they throw less than 10 pitches, and the longer they stay in the game, the less we’ll see of the bullpen, and we have shown we can hit the bullpen (Mariano Rivera may be the exception). Sabathia lasted 8 innings in both outings, and the Yankees won those games easily. But the Yankees bullpen has struggled to control the Angels in late innings, and manager Joe Girardi has had to basically use his entire relief staff to finish the game. Aside from last game, the Yankees were averaging 4 runs a game. If we can keep them under five runs, get Burnett out of the game early and play with confidence, we can take this game and keep the series alive. Go Halos!

Yankees

Pitching – A.J. Burnett
Postseason – 12.1 in, 6H 3ER 10K, 2.19 ERA
Last Start Against Angels – 6.1 in, 3H 2ER, 2.84 ERA

Angels

Pitching – John Lackey
Postseason – 13 in, 13H 2ER 7K, 1.38 ERA
Last STart Against Yankees – 5.2 in, 9H 2ER 3K, 3.18 ERA

…Players

Errors happen when your nervous or mentally somewhere else, and high scoring innings happen when pitchers aren’t aggressive. It feels like our Red Sox series of the past. Mental error after mental error. This is not the Angel team we have seen all year. Why is it so hard to step and throw a baseball accurately? You are major league players.

Also, in two playoff starts now Scott Kazmir is dancing around the strike zone like he’s Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Yankees will get their home runs, but if you limit them to solo shots you can put yourself in a position to win. We saw this in game 3. Scott Kazmir should have been pulled for Santana in the third inning. He maneuvered himself out of two situations early, but the Yankee lineup will get to you eventually if you give them the chance.

Yes this umpiring crew should be fired. The calls they made in this game were sickening, but they really had no effect on the outcome. Excuse my frustration, but it’s time for this team to grow a pair, and be aggressive like they were in game 3 and against the Red Sox.

…Fans

I was at last nights game, and there were a good amount of Yankee fans there. But even when the game started to turn for the worst there were a handful of Angel fans trying to quiet the Yankee cheers, and do their part. They got no support. Maybe it’s just because I was in the 100 hundred section where the Orange County rich sit, who could care less about this team, but what I saw was pathetic. I myself was told by a Yankee fan to sit down because he couldn’t see. I was told this for cheering my team in our stadium, and I wasn’t the only one. When this happened the Angel fans around me did nothing. Also, after the 7th inning half of the stadium left the game. I know we were down, but it’s a playoff game. Let me say it again, IT’S A FREAKING PLAYOFF GAME! Only 8 team in baseball make the playoffs, let alone the ALCS.

Maybe I’m wrong, but I thought we were supposed to support each other. And let me also be clear, there were a lot of great fans there last night. There are a lot of great Angel fans in general, but last night we were out numbered. So I ask again, what are you afraid of? That a Yankee fan will call you a name, or that you’ll get stuck in the parking lot for an extra ten minutes. Give me a break!

I still have hope. This series is not over yet. We won’t see Sabathia until game 7, and we have Lackey on the mound tomorrow. So if you are going to the game on Thursday make yourself heard, stay standing, and stay for the whole game because again, this is the playoffs and a lot of people would love to be where you are. If you aren’t that into it, don’t come. Seriously. We don’t want you there. We have such a great core of fans, so let’s make that known.

- Tony C

Apparently the commissioners office said there is no conclusive evidence that Mariano Rivera cheated. Um, is he watching the same video I am. Why would he first look up (possibly to see if anyone is looking), and then spit right toward the ball. If he wasn’t cheating he is an idiot.

It has been said that a spitball doesn’t perform like Rivera’s cutter, and it performs more like a knuckleball. This just isn’t true. It only ads extra movement. It is impossible to say how it will move because it depends on how much spit is on the ball and where it is on the ball.

The bigger question is why is this getting such little coverage. ESPN talked about it a little, but I have only seen it otherwise on a few blogs and on Facebook. When Brendan Donnelly was suspected of using pine tar we didn’t here the end of it. It’s time to return the favor.

- Tony C