The book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, by Michael Lewis came out in 2003 about the Oakland Athletics and GM Billy Bean trying to win with a smaller budget. The primary focus at the time was pitching and on-base-percentage. And we saw this on the field with pitchers such as Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, and Tim Hudson. And currently with hitters like Jack Cust. However, it now seems as though the price of pitching has shot up with pitchers like John Lackey, and A.J. Burnett (Maybe #2 pitchers at best) getting $85 million. Also, the medium average, big power, poor defensive players like Adam Dunn, and Jason Bay seem to still be taking advantage of a down economy. Even though they didn’t get at much as they would they are still making more than there colleagues. Some would blame this on a small free agent class, I would argue that the price of BB’s is extremely high. The Angels paid $6.5 million for a guy that can’t stay healthy and can’t play in the field in Hideki Matsui.

It seems as though a new “Moneyball” is here and you can bet that the Oakland A’s are very aware. Many commentators have already crowned the Seattle Mariners as the champion of the West due to their off-season moves, but they are paying a large sum for just a few players. Most of their payroll goes toward King Felix, Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, and Ken Griffey Jr. I bet you can’t you name the rest of their lineup and pitching staff. Meanwhile the Oakland A’s have paid very little for a great defensive outfielder and lead-off man in Coco Crisp (1 year $5.25 mil), and a potential Ace in Justin Duchscherer (1 year $2 mill with incentives). (Both are injury prone) Why do you think the A’s are so interested in Adrian Beltre?

If I had to sum it up I would say the new “Moneyball” would include high upside injury prone veterans, but mostly consist of defensive players with a little speed and pop. The Red Sox and Yankees typically use these value players to fill out their roster. (i.e. Mike Cameron - Boston Red Sox - 2 years $15.5 million) Both organizations have been known to take advantage of the high OPS, previous “Moneyball” players in the past. (i.e. Nick Swisher)

Now it seems as though everyone is getting less money days if they even have a job. These value players I am referring to are inexpensive as compared to the current market. Look for the Oakland A’s to surprise doubters once again. The Angels will have a tough road ahead of them in 2010.

Here are some “New Moneyball” value players that are still out there:

Ben Sheets
John Smoltz
Jose Contreras
Erik Bedard
Pedro Martinez
Chien-Ming Wang

Orlando Cabrera
Adrian Beltre
Rick Ankiel
Scott Podsednik

Now that Bobby Abreu is signed there are three other ex-Angel free-agents who’s futures are uncertain. So how should the Angels approach this offseason?

Priority #1- John Lackey and/or another solid starting pitcher. If the Angels were to lose Big John we would be left with four solid starting pitchers, but that’s a downgrade from what we had last season. With all due respect for O’Sullivan, Palmer, and Bell, none of them will be number one or each number two starters any time soon. You just can’t win without pitching which is why this is priority.

#2 - Bullpen. Along with mental mistakes our bullpen probably lost us a World Series this year. Luckily, unlike other positions, the options for solid bullpen pitchers is plentiful. I would like to see the Angels bring in someone like Putz, Soriano, or Gonzalez.

#3 - Third Base. This is something that can be filled in house if they finally give Brandon Wood a shot. But as we learned from Dallas McPherson that is not always a good idea. Look for the Angels to heavily pursue Chone Figgins, and possibly leave the DH slot open for a rotation that may include Brandon Wood.

#4 - Vlad. Because we hate to see him go, but will only pay so much.

-Tony C

1. Matt Holliday - Sure he was great in Colorado and St. Louis, but there is just too much down side for the price he will be asking. The Cardinals should have beat the Dodgers, and he is a big reason why they didn’t. The last thing we need is a playoff mental case.

2. R. Wolf - Outside of Dodger stadium Wolf is a mediocre pitcher at best. And that is in the national league. I don’t want another Jeff Weaver.

3. Johnny Damon - Damon really only hit well in games that weren’t really close in this years playoffs. He’s also tough to put in the outfield because of his poor arm. I’m definitely not as opposed to him as I am the others on this list, but with Bobby Abreu now signed I don’t think it’s a good idea.

4. Rich Harden - Sure he’s great when he’s healthy during the regular season, but again he’s hasn’t yet proven himself in the playoffs and thats what we need.

5. M. Cameron - The last thing we need is another Gary Matthews Jr.

6. Troy Glaus - He not a World Series MVP anymore. Remember he was on steriods then. Brandon Wood is a better option at third.

7. Marlon Byrd - He just a jerk, and has only really performed well in Texas.

Coming soon…The Angels Best Free Agent Options

- Tony C

Major Expiring Contacts:

Vladimir Guerrero
5 years/$70M (2004-08), plus 2009 club option
2009 Salary - $15 million

Kelvim Escobar
3 years/$28.5M (2007-09)
2009 Salary - $9.5 million

John Lackey
3 years/$17.01M (2006-08), plus 2009 club option
2009 Salary - $9 million

Chone Figgins
1 year/$5.775M (2009)

Bobby Abreu
1 year/$5M (2009)

In my view the Angels have a legitimate shot of keeping all of these guys with the exception of Escobar. Escobar’s 9.5 million will be gone and Vlad won’t make near as much as he is now. This will free up money for primarily John Lackey, who I think will be the Angels #1 target. Pitching is just too valuable, and Lackey is clutch.

Primary teams we’ll be competing with:

John Lackey - Rangers, Dodgers, Cubs, Astros, Mets, Cardinals (Yankees and Red Sox already an ace and have other holes to fill, but you never know)

Vladimir Guerrero - Mariners, White Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles (I know these teams look random, but he can’t go to the National League, and I really don’t think the big market teams want him)

Chone Figgins - Everyone (Figgins is so valuable due to his position eligibility and speed, I think he will be the hardest to keep)

Bobby Abreu - Same (Again, five tool player. His age and defensive abilities will bring the price down)

Other Nice Options:

Jason Bay, Matt Holliday

-Tony C