AMERICAN LEAGUE

The Tigers led the AL in playoff probability improvement with a +18 percentage point week. They were 5-2 with quality wins over the Yankees and potential Wild Card competitor Boston. The Tigers rise also took a -10.8 percentage point chunk out of the Twins’ chances who despite their grand-slam off of Mariano Rivera still finished just 2-3 this week. Despite the down week the Twins are still heavy 73 percent favorites to win the AL Central. Both teams benefit from lackluster efforts so far from the White Sox, Royals and Indians.

The Angels had a good 4-2 week and more than doubled their playoff chances, but considering they are still 3 games under .500 they still have under a 15 percent chance. The rest of the AL West was amazingly stable this week with no team rising or falling more than a couple of percentage points.

The NY Yankees were just 3-4 with losses in Detroit and the shocking loss to the Twins. While their playoff chances took a -8.6 percentage point hit they are still clearly in control of their playoff destiny with a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 53 percent chance of catching the Rays despite being 2 games back currently. The Rays parlayed a 4-2 week into a solid +5 percentage point increase and they have the 2nd highest playoff percentage despite being in the same division as the Yankees, the #1 in playoff percentage.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

While the AL was marked by its lack of playoff shifts, the NL is marked by a major shift of 10+ percentage points (positively and negatively) for 8 teams and only two teams shifted by less than 2 percentage points. The Dodgers continue stay hot and after an undefeated week their playoff chances have skyrocketed by +32 points. While the Giants were a decent 3-3 they still lose over 25 points because they were swept by division leader San Diego at home, instead of taking 2 of 3 as the odds would expect. The Padres were not able to capitalize on this sweep because they were in turn swept by the Dodgers. The Rockies also had a big 4-2 week and wins over Washington are no longer considered easy wins but rather quality wins.

The Reds also had a great 5-1 week with an impressive series vs the Cardinals. The Reds may have been home underdogs in these games but they won 2 of 3 and saw their playoff chances jump 25 points, primarily at the expense of the Cardinals who plummeted over 25 percentage points.

The Atlanta Braves were 5-1 but only saw a minor +2.4 percentage point improvement. They were expected to go 4-2 this week so a 5-1 week is only +1 better than expected. They are still 5.5 games back. The Phillies and Marlins were our pre-season picks to lead the NL East and the Mets 1-6 week have brought them back down to earth with a -6 point drop.

By Stephen Oh

AccuScore.com

A great series has a chance to be epic. Joe Saunders, who pitched well in game 2, takes the mound against Andy Pettitte, who the Angels have had a lot of success against. The Angels will face a hostile crowd in New York, but the weather will be much better. I’d like to see the Angels get off to an early start, but it doesn’t seem proper unless they come back from behind. So we’ll see. Good luck out there Halo fans. Hopefully this game will be less stressful and we can take it to game 7.

Yankees

Pitching – Andy Pettitte
2009 Postseason – 12.2 in, 10H 4ER 9K, 2.84 ERA
Last Start Against Angels – 6.1 in, 7H 3ER, 2.84 ERA

Angels

Pitching – Joe Saunders
Last Start Against Yankees – 7 in, 6H 2ER 5K, 2.57 ERA

We’ve found ourselves in a 3-1 hole, but if anyone can pull us out of it, it’ll be our ace John Lackey, who has posted a 1.38 ERA in 13 postseason innings of work. Lackey has already thrown against the Yankees in this series, and while he gave up 9 hits in 5.2 innings and gave up 4 runs, only two of those were earned. He didn’t get a lot of run support, mainly because he was paired against C.C. Sabathia, who quite frankly, embarrassed us last game. But this time, he’ll be pitching against A.J. Burnett, who gave up two earned runs in six innings. One of the reasons we are struggling offensively is because we are swinging too early in the count. We’re giving pitchers innings where they throw less than 10 pitches, and the longer they stay in the game, the less we’ll see of the bullpen, and we have shown we can hit the bullpen (Mariano Rivera may be the exception). Sabathia lasted 8 innings in both outings, and the Yankees won those games easily. But the Yankees bullpen has struggled to control the Angels in late innings, and manager Joe Girardi has had to basically use his entire relief staff to finish the game. Aside from last game, the Yankees were averaging 4 runs a game. If we can keep them under five runs, get Burnett out of the game early and play with confidence, we can take this game and keep the series alive. Go Halos!

Yankees

Pitching – A.J. Burnett
Postseason – 12.1 in, 6H 3ER 10K, 2.19 ERA
Last Start Against Angels – 6.1 in, 3H 2ER, 2.84 ERA

Angels

Pitching – John Lackey
Postseason – 13 in, 13H 2ER 7K, 1.38 ERA
Last STart Against Yankees – 5.2 in, 9H 2ER 3K, 3.18 ERA

…Players

Errors happen when your nervous or mentally somewhere else, and high scoring innings happen when pitchers aren’t aggressive. It feels like our Red Sox series of the past. Mental error after mental error. This is not the Angel team we have seen all year. Why is it so hard to step and throw a baseball accurately? You are major league players.

Also, in two playoff starts now Scott Kazmir is dancing around the strike zone like he’s Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Yankees will get their home runs, but if you limit them to solo shots you can put yourself in a position to win. We saw this in game 3. Scott Kazmir should have been pulled for Santana in the third inning. He maneuvered himself out of two situations early, but the Yankee lineup will get to you eventually if you give them the chance.

Yes this umpiring crew should be fired. The calls they made in this game were sickening, but they really had no effect on the outcome. Excuse my frustration, but it’s time for this team to grow a pair, and be aggressive like they were in game 3 and against the Red Sox.

…Fans

I was at last nights game, and there were a good amount of Yankee fans there. But even when the game started to turn for the worst there were a handful of Angel fans trying to quiet the Yankee cheers, and do their part. They got no support. Maybe it’s just because I was in the 100 hundred section where the Orange County rich sit, who could care less about this team, but what I saw was pathetic. I myself was told by a Yankee fan to sit down because he couldn’t see. I was told this for cheering my team in our stadium, and I wasn’t the only one. When this happened the Angel fans around me did nothing. Also, after the 7th inning half of the stadium left the game. I know we were down, but it’s a playoff game. Let me say it again, IT’S A FREAKING PLAYOFF GAME! Only 8 team in baseball make the playoffs, let alone the ALCS.

Maybe I’m wrong, but I thought we were supposed to support each other. And let me also be clear, there were a lot of great fans there last night. There are a lot of great Angel fans in general, but last night we were out numbered. So I ask again, what are you afraid of? That a Yankee fan will call you a name, or that you’ll get stuck in the parking lot for an extra ten minutes. Give me a break!

I still have hope. This series is not over yet. We won’t see Sabathia until game 7, and we have Lackey on the mound tomorrow. So if you are going to the game on Thursday make yourself heard, stay standing, and stay for the whole game because again, this is the playoffs and a lot of people would love to be where you are. If you aren’t that into it, don’t come. Seriously. We don’t want you there. We have such a great core of fans, so let’s make that known.

- Tony C

Apparently the commissioners office said there is no conclusive evidence that Mariano Rivera cheated. Um, is he watching the same video I am. Why would he first look up (possibly to see if anyone is looking), and then spit right toward the ball. If he wasn’t cheating he is an idiot.

It has been said that a spitball doesn’t perform like Rivera’s cutter, and it performs more like a knuckleball. This just isn’t true. It only ads extra movement. It is impossible to say how it will move because it depends on how much spit is on the ball and where it is on the ball.

The bigger question is why is this getting such little coverage. ESPN talked about it a little, but I have only seen it otherwise on a few blogs and on Facebook. When Brendan Donnelly was suspected of using pine tar we didn’t here the end of it. It’s time to return the favor.

- Tony C

Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankess @LA 4:57pm

The Angels are coming off a huge walk off double from career .200 hitter Jeff Mathis, a game that Torii Hunter said might have been one of the best games that he’s ever been a part of. The Angels have found themselves running into the problem of stranding runners, leaving 42 on base in the last 3 games. The Halos outhit the Yankees last night for the first time in the series, and although C.C. Sabathia, who gave up four hits, will be on the mound tonight, he’ll be pitching on short rest. This could be a big advantage for the Angels giving them a chance to see a possibly tired Sabathia for the second of three possible starts. The Angels will send out Scott Kazmir, who will make his second appearance in this 2009 postseason. If we win this one, it’s a whole new series!

Yankees

Pitching – C.C. Sabathia
Season – 19-8, 197K 3.37 ERA
On the Road - 12-6, 114K 3.53 ERA
Last Postseason Start – 8in, 4H 1ER 7K, 1.23 ERA

Angels

Pitching – Scott Kazmir
Season - 10-9, 117K 4.89 ERA
At Home - 0-1, 10K 2.84 ERA
Last Postseason Start – 6in, 5H 5ER 1K, 7.50 ERA

This playoff season has consisted of maybe the two greatest Angel games I have ever seen. Of course with the exception of game 6 of the 2002 World Series. It was difficult to watch, and breath, but they came through in the end. And other than the Fuentes’ mistake pitch last night and the Jepsen blunder today, our bullpen has really performed well. As much as we complain about them they have kept us in the game when our offense hasn’t performed.

Now we have the momentum with Scott Kazmir on the mound tomorrow night. Our big advantage for the rest of this series will be seeing pitches. This is the second time around for C.C. Sabathia, and we have seen Mariano Rivera in every game. They have yet to see Kazmir. This could work in our favor. All season the Angels have done most of their scoring in the later innings when they have seen everything the starter has to offer. I don’t see why this will be any different.

If you are going to the game stay loud, and Go Halos!

- Tony C

As I said before. If Weaver can give us a win today it’s a new series. With Kazmir and Lackey going in the next two games, we can win this thing. Maybe this is how it’s supposed to happen. Nothing has been easy for this team this year, why should this be any different? Keep the faith and Go Halos!

Yankees

Pitching - Andy Pettitte

Season- 14-8, 148K 4.16 ERA
Against Angels – 0-2, 16 in, 6K, 7.88 ERA

Angels

Pitching- Jered Weaver

Season – 16-8, 174K 3.75 ERA
Against Yankees – 1-1, 19 in, 13K, 5.59 ERA

- Tony C