AMERICAN LEAGUE

AccuScore was optimistic that Oakland could improve on last year’s poor 75 win season giving them a nearly 18 percent chance of making the playoffs. After a 9-5 start the A’s playoff chances jumped nearly 25 percentage points and they are actually the favorite in the AL West in a virtual tie with pre-season pick, Los Angeles. The Angels are just 6-7, but they only dropped -4.8 points because they have had a tough early schedule with series vs the Twins and Yankees. Seattle is also just 6-7, but they only dropped -3.2 percent. The big loser in the division is Texas who is just 5-7.

When Joe Nathan got injured many predicted the Twins would struggle, but AccuScore only had the Twins winning 1.5 fewer games without Nathan and they were our pick to win the Division. After a 9-4 start the Twins have improved their projected win total from 88 to 93 wins. Jon Rauch is 6-0 in save opportunities and more importantly, Francisco Liriano has looked great. The Royals and Indians are 5-7, and 6-6 respectively, but given they were both projected for 74 wins or less, these records are enough to see their playoff chances jump +10.8 points for KC and +5.0 points for Cleveland. The Royals jumped more because of quality road wins @Detroit and @ Minnesota. Of course the biggest reason for their increase is the fact that the White Sox are just 4-9 and have seen their playoff chances already drop from 25.8 to just 9.6 percent. The -16.2 points matches up nearly exactly with the +15.8 points for KC and CLE. Detroit is 7-5 and on the exact pace AccuScore predicted. Its playoff chances are basically unchanged after 2 weeks.

The Blue Jays are surprisingly over .500 and they did lead the AL East in increased playoff chances (+8.8 percent), but they still have just a 9.0 percent chance of making the playoffs. The story in the AL East is Boston and their awful 4-8 start which includes bad home losses to the Yankees and Rays. In a division where the Top 3 Teams were separated by 8 to 10 wins, starting 1-5 against your primary competition is taking a severe -37 percent toll. While there are still 23 more weeks to go, do not be surprised if Boston fans are bemoaning their horrible start when they are 3rd in the AL East at the end of the season. The Rays are the main beneficiary of Boston’s bad start with a +15.7 percentage point improvement.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

The NL West was forecasted to be the most competitive division with the Top 4 teams all projected for 81 to 85 wins. The Giants are the big winners after the first two weeks with a +15 point increase in playoff percentage. While the Giants helped themselves with a solid 8-4 start, their +15 point increase has more to do with both the Rockies and Dodgers going just .500. While the Giants have a 2 game lead at the moment they are predicted to play better than expected in the pre-season because their #3 and #4 starters, Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito, have looked good and Tim Lincecum is dominating. The Giants have superior pitching. The Padres are actually the biggest gainers in the division at +17.5 points after a surprising 6-6 start. Expect SD to slip in the coming weeks after they start facing LA, Colorado and San Francisco.

The Cubs and Brewers are just 5-7 but somehow they saw their playoff chances increase slightly after 2 weeks. In pre-season simulations their playoff chances were tied to being the NL Wild Card. While a 5-7 record does not help the cause, the early struggles of the Dodgers, Rockies and NL Central rival, Cincinnati, have helped improve the playoff chances of other Wild Card contenders. The Reds, Dodgers and Rockies dropped a combined -32 points and some of this drop-off went to these two NL Central teams. The Cardinals are playing well, as expected and maintained their over 80% chance they had in the pre-season.

The Phillies are a solid 8-4 and are ahead of the pace to win their projected 94 games. However, their playoff chances actually have dropped -14 points to a still solid 72.5 percent. We are not saying the Phillies are not as good a team as expected, we are saying the Marlins could pose more serious threats in the division than expected. Florida took two of three from Philadelphia in Philadelphia and head-to-head wins make a significant impact on playoff odds because they often dictate who wins a division. The Braves also have played up to high expectations with a solid 7-5 record, but like Philly, they saw their playoff odds drop after two weeks. Again, the solid 8-5 from Florida, and the surprising 6-6 from the Washington Nationals (+4.7 points) have made the already competitive NL East, even more competitive than expected. The Mets are the only team that is performing to AccuScore’s low expectations.